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Global Warming Sources
Mars Man
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Posted 06/10/07 - 06:46 PM:
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#26
HI !! Is everyone fine today?

Please forgive my suddenly burstin in here, still standing looking the place over while the waistdoors are still swaying from my having entered, and the piano music suddenly stopped--all faces staring at me.

I am surprized to find an element of otional exchange that one would usually expect to see in the religious fora--not that it would be totally absent in a scientific fora, but. . .

I will check and see if I can find any articles from the science journals that I have--of course I am far, far behind in my reading, though.

If there were anything that I would hope for (in whatever limited rights or authority I may seem to have in the mind of you fellow PF members) it would be that there would be no personal attacks as I have noticed. (it's the first time to see that side in some members)

I hope to return fairly soon (with info. but will continue to read); sorry for the interruption...carry on ! smiling face
Landlady
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Posted 06/11/07 - 12:02 PM:
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#27
Here's the Greenpeace video and an article on the Rongbuk glacier:

-YouTube Greenpeace Video.
-Greenpeace Article.

There is time to laugh and there is time not to laugh, and this is not one of them. - Insp. Clouseau.
From the moment absurdity is recognized, it becomes a passion, the most harrowing of all. But whether or not one can live with one's passions, whether or not one can accept their law, which is to burn the heart they simultaneously exalt--that is the whole question. � Camus.
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Posted 06/13/07 - 01:11 AM:
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#28
I will try to put this into a readible format with as little interpretation as I am self-aware of being able to do. From the outset, I will state that I lean more towards the conclusion that human activity is the factor that is tipping the scales (in what would otherwise--and still is in one eccentric way of looking at what animal life is--be simply the state of nature outside of human activity) towards Climate Change.

In the introduction to Polar Science
1, the writers point out that the International Polar Year (IPY) 2-year research initiative launched this month, will help get a better picture of where the Artic and Antarctica have been and where they are going. They give note to the idea that 'how fast sea levels rise over the coming century,' being 'potentially one of the most serious consequences of global warming,' is related to 'how fast the polar ice sheets melt.' The tone opens on a fair and balanced, this is the data, these are the facts, without trying to aruge for a main cause for global climate change, but throughout the articles and papers that follow, that there is an unusual warming trend does not generally seemed to be challenged. (of course that's not the purpose of this journal anyway)

In the past 30 years, Fraser and his colleagues have witnessed a stunning change in the climate, one that is altering the mix of species in the West Antarctic Peninsual. 'This ecosystem is on fire.' says Hugh Ducklow of the College of William and Mary Virginia Institute of Marine Science in Gloucester Point.
2

As global temperatures have risen, so have rates of snowfall, ice melting, and glacier flow. Although the balance between these opposing processes has varied considerably on a regional scale, data show that Antarctica and Greenland are each losing mass overall. Our best estimate of their combined imbalance is about 125 gigatons per year of ice, enough to raise sea level by 0.35 millimeters per year.
(the paper points out that this is only a modest contribution to the 3.0 millimeters rise in sea-level per year.)
3

Linear trends in arctic sea-ice extent over the period 1979 to 2006 are negative in every month. This ice loss is best viewed as a combination of strong natural variability in the coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere system and a growing radiative forcing associated with rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the latter supported by evidence of qualitative consistency between observed trends and those simulated by climate models over the same period.
4

Notable warming trends have been observed in the Artic. Although increased human-induced emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases are certainly the main driving factor, air pollutants, such as aerosols and ozone, are also important.
5


The above three quotes are from the abstacts of thos papers. The last one, just above, is the last paper in that special on Polar Science, so I will quote from the last paragraph of that report.

Most of the ongoing and predicted rapid changes in the Artic climate are a direct onsequence of the increasing levels of long-lived greenhouse gases and posititve feedbacks specific to the Arctic. 6In order to combat these changes, reductions in the omissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, are urgently needed. However, the Arctic may also benefit more than other regions from reductions in the emissions of short-lived climate agents. In particular, reducing BC [Black Carbon] emissions could slow atmospheric warming and the melting of snow and ice, and reducing troposheric ozone concentrations could slow the increase in Arctic surface air temperatures.


I'll give some more from Science, Scientific American, and NewScientist in the up-coming posts.



1. SpecialSection by E. Pennisi, J. Smith, and R. Stone;
Science Vol 315, March 16, '07, p1513 2. Boom and Bust in a Polar Hot Zone by Erik Stokstad, ibid, pp1522-23. 3. Recent Sea-Level Contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets by A. Shepherd and D. Wingham (Center for Polar Observation and Modeling, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, and (ditto), Department of Earth Sciences, University College London--respectively, ibid, pp1529-32. 4. [i [Perspectives on the Artic's Shrinking Sea-Ice Cover[/i] by M.C. Sereze, M.M. Holland, and J. Stroeve (the first and last of Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, and the middle author of National Center for Atmospheric Research), ibid, pp1533-36. 5. Artic Air Pollution: Origins and Impacts by K.S. Law and A. Stohl (of Service d'Aeronomie, CNRS, IPRS/Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris and Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILC), Kjeller, Norway, respectively) ibid, pp1537-40. Here the authors refer to [i]Climate Change 2001; The Scientific Basis, edited by J.T. Houghton (IPCC).
Mars Man
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Posted 06/15/07 - 09:12 AM:
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#29
This is a little from an article in NewScientist (27 Aug. '05; pp26-30)--The Flaw In the Thaw, by F. Pearce.

The article basically points to there being more reasons than just global warming, for the shrinking glaciers.

Yet again, though, we cannot leap from the local to the global. The temperatures in the tropical Andes are rising in part due to the increased frequency and intensity of El Nino, the Pacific climate anomaly. How much the changes to El Nino are tied to global warming and how much to natural climate oscillations is an open question. So the link between the dramatic loss of ice in the tropical Andes and climate change is not as clear as it appears.
(p29)

If, as virtually all climatologists now believe, the fingerprints of human activity can be seen all over the rise in global temperatures over the past half-century, then they are all over the retreat of glaciers too. Glaciologists may still be arguing about the comings and goings of specific glaciers such as those on Kilimanjaro, but they are in absolutely no doubt about the big picture; the glacers are shrinking ever faster because of global warming.
(p30)

Until recently, climatologists thought it would take thousands of years of warming to melt the vast ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Now many think they could collapse within centuries.
(p30)


James Weisbrod
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Posted 06/15/07 - 07:13 PM:
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#30
Some interesting stuff from the BBC....

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5076322.stm

How can you come to a final conclusion if you can't understand all of the variables in a formula...

I am pro Green... Better lifestyles ect... but to sell it as fact when it is only theory is wrong...

But hey... Who doesn't do it...

http://www.sitebyjames.com
Gramm
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Posted 06/15/07 - 10:56 PM:
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#31
Nice post James.

I too am pro Green and have been for over 30 years...Haven't owned a car in all that time, walk and ride a bike where ever possible.

Nevertheless a Green lifestyle should be based on science fact, not science fiction.

Nor should it be so expensive, that it penalises the already struggling poor.

That said,

From where I stand, the more research I read, the more it leads me to conclude that much of the climatic (should we say climactic) evidence being presented by the IPCC, is often manipulated, massaged or distorted. All in order to support their (IPCC) own politically driven agendas.

Nevertheless, for those who are prepared to read 'between the lines' and to take what the IPCC has to say with a large pinch of salt ... it's becoming clearer that we're probably witnessing the beginnings of the long awaited Global Cooling.

When all the current evidence related to the Gulf Stream, is matched to that of the Solar output decline, plus recent data showing that Interstellar radiation and its cooling effect on the Earth; then all these factors combined, point to a significant downturn in global temperatures and with it, sea levels that will decline as a result of the dual action of thermal reduction (colder water takes less space) and increasing levels of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice. This latter proof is in keeping with evidence showing that the Antarctic is getting colder..not warmer.

Of course, this analysis is diametrically opposite to that being pushed by the Global Warming doomsayers.

As far I am concerned, we have more to be concerned over in relation to Global Cooling, than any forceable effects of alleged Anthropogenic Global Warming.

The next few years will begin to clearly show if the trend is towards cooling or warming.

You can guess which of the two positions I find more credible.

Gramm


Edited by Gramm on 06/16/07 - 12:04 AM

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Desiderata
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Posted 06/16/07 - 04:29 AM:
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#32
Scientific article in support of antarctic cooling.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2004GL02074...

Scientific articles on this do exist, even if nobody who supports global cooling actually consults scientific articles.

In this case, unfortunately, the scientific article shows that the cooling is limited to certain regions and that there are average temperature increases over the long term.

(See http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=18 )

"Scientific truth is always paradox, if judged by everyday experience, which catches only the delusive nature of things." - KM, V, P and P

"A fishnet is made up of a lot more holes than strings, but you can't therefore argue that the net doesn't exist. Just ask the fish." - Jeffrey Kluger

"…Love of God and compassion and empathy leads you to a very glorious place, and science leads you to killing people." -Ben Stein [This is included for the irony.]
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Posted 07/05/07 - 03:45 AM:
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#33
Discussion, and link to, a scientific article about cosmic rays and the theory that cosmic rays cause global warming:

http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2007/07/no-lin...

"Scientific truth is always paradox, if judged by everyday experience, which catches only the delusive nature of things." - KM, V, P and P

"A fishnet is made up of a lot more holes than strings, but you can't therefore argue that the net doesn't exist. Just ask the fish." - Jeffrey Kluger

"…Love of God and compassion and empathy leads you to a very glorious place, and science leads you to killing people." -Ben Stein [This is included for the irony.]
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Posted 07/06/07 - 09:29 AM:
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#34
Scientists have traditionally been able to test their theories by changing different variables and observing the outcomes. For good reasons this really isn't possible or ideal to test climate change.

Fortunately, we've been able to take the theory and apply it else where.

- Mars: Mar's atmosphere is 1% of earth's and provides a decent place to test the effects of greenhouse gas. With a thin atmosphere Mars will have negligible greenhouse warming.

-Venus: Venus on the contrary has 100 times the desity of Earth's atmosphere containing 97% carbon dioxide. Here, just the opposite has occurred: creating temperatures to 500'C!

-Mount Pinatubo: The volcano erupted in 1991 creating a test scenario of atmospheric disruption allowing scientist again to test their theories. The fall in average global temp. followed closely with the scientific models.

And of course Ice Core preserve nearly million-year-old records of Earth's atmospheric composition, allowing scientists to observe the correlation between temp and carbon dioxide.

Scientists, using such evidences, are then able to connect the 0.65'C rise in average temp since the early 20th century with the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the same peroid.



"What the world calls clever more often is vanity and narrowness." - Goethe, Faust.

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Posted 07/11/07 - 09:45 AM:
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#35
perseus wrote:
A new scientific study concludes that changes in the Sun's output cannot be causing modern-day climate change.

It shows that for the last 20 years, the Sun's output has declined, yet temperatures on Earth have risen.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6290228.stm

"This should settle the debate," said Mike Lockwood, from the UK's Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory, who carried out the new analysis together with Claus Froehlich from the World Radiation Center in Switzerland.

Copied here to add to sources.

"Scientific truth is always paradox, if judged by everyday experience, which catches only the delusive nature of things." - KM, V, P and P

"A fishnet is made up of a lot more holes than strings, but you can't therefore argue that the net doesn't exist. Just ask the fish." - Jeffrey Kluger

"…Love of God and compassion and empathy leads you to a very glorious place, and science leads you to killing people." -Ben Stein [This is included for the irony.]
Gramm
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Posted 07/16/07 - 04:58 AM:
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Here is an organization that includes numerous Climatologists, Meteorologists and related field scientists.

Amongst their contributing authors, are several professors who have worked with the IPCC.

http://icecap.us/index.php

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Desiderata
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Posted 07/17/07 - 02:30 PM:
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#37
The Great Global Warming Swindle (the first post's link is giving 404's)
http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=-302884751...

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Gramm
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Posted 07/17/07 - 10:21 PM:
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2006 assessment of Greenland's temperatures, (to 2005) by the American Geophysical Union.

http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/Chylek/greenlan...

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL02651...

Gramm

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Desiderata
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Posted 07/23/07 - 12:28 PM:
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#39
http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/Chylek/greenlan...

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL02651...

Two bad links. Just the quality of science that we've come to expect.

People may want to look at the RealClimate.org wiki. It is not open to general editing.

http://www.realclimate.org/wiki/index.php?title=RC_Wiki

"Scientific truth is always paradox, if judged by everyday experience, which catches only the delusive nature of things." - KM, V, P and P

"A fishnet is made up of a lot more holes than strings, but you can't therefore argue that the net doesn't exist. Just ask the fish." - Jeffrey Kluger

"…Love of God and compassion and empathy leads you to a very glorious place, and science leads you to killing people." -Ben Stein [This is included for the irony.]
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Posted 07/23/07 - 12:45 PM:
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#40
Gramm wrote:
Here is an organization that includes numerous Climatologists, Meteorologists and related field scientists.

Amongst their contributing authors, are several professors who have worked with the IPCC.

http://icecap.us/index.php

It is informative to look at the publications section of that website and note that there is only one journal mentioned, Energy and Environment.

The curious might want to read this report on the journal, "Skeptics get a journal". http://pubs.acs.org/subscribe/journals/esthag-w/2...

"Scientific truth is always paradox, if judged by everyday experience, which catches only the delusive nature of things." - KM, V, P and P

"A fishnet is made up of a lot more holes than strings, but you can't therefore argue that the net doesn't exist. Just ask the fish." - Jeffrey Kluger

"…Love of God and compassion and empathy leads you to a very glorious place, and science leads you to killing people." -Ben Stein [This is included for the irony.]
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Posted 07/23/07 - 12:56 PM:
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The links Gramm attempted to post are probably these

http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/Chylek/greenlan...

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL02651...



The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man. George Bernard Shaw
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Posted 07/23/07 - 01:00 PM:
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Could someone confirm to Paul in Admin that I am not the only person who has problems with links.

http://forums.philosophyforums.com/threads/truncated-links-26818.html

The problem seems to occur if you post a long URL and then edit the document. I suspect Gramm edited it. (note it doesn't say you have edited if you edit within a few mins).

If you don't edit the post, it appears truncated but is in fact usable (press on the links in my last post)



Edited by perseus on 07/23/07 - 01:05 PM

The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man. George Bernard Shaw
perseus
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Posted 07/23/07 - 01:07 PM:
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Note the last link was posted in the last edit of the document hence it is still useable. Sorry for going off topic but this has been bugging me for a while.

The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man. George Bernard Shaw
Gramm
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Posted 07/23/07 - 05:39 PM:
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perseus wrote:
Could someone confirm to Paul in Admin that I am not the only person who has problems with links.

http://forums.philosophyforums.com/threads/truncated-links-26818.html

The problem seems to occur if you post a long URL and then edit the document. I suspect Gramm edited it. (note it doesn't say you have edited if you edit within a few mins).

If you don't edit the post, it appears truncated but is in fact usable (press on the links in my last post)




Perseus,

No I didn't edit them.

The trouble lies with the length of the urls.

If I recall, in the past, some of of your url links have failed as well.

I can't remember what you did to circumnavigate the problem, but at the time it worked.

In any case, I always double check my links to make sure that they are working correctly before I sign off.

Unfortunately at some latter point, Pauls' forum software seems to want to abbreviate the urls.

Regards

Gramm

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Desiderata
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Posted 07/23/07 - 11:43 PM:
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#45
Gramm

I separated the URL into two parts previously, however there is no need to do this. If you press on my link you will find they work even though they look truncated. Try removing your post (rather than edit) and re-post with the URLs in and you might find they will work.

Incidentally, Landlady used the insert link function (the globe above the WSN editor) but I have never got this to work.

The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man. George Bernard Shaw
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Posted 07/28/07 - 06:27 AM:
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Not only climate sceptics disagree with the IPCC, here is a paper by Hansen et al of the NASA Goddard space institute who believes the prediction for sea level rise have been grossly undersstimated.

Global warming of approximately 3 C is predicted by practically all climate models for ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU) growth of GHGs (IPCC 2001, 2007). Yet IPCC (2001, 2007) foresees twenty-first century sea-level rise of only a fraction of a metre with BAU global warming. Their analysis assumes an inertia for ice sheets that, we argue, is incompatible with palaeoclimate data and inconsistent with observations of current ice sheet behaviour……

The imminent peril is initiation of dynamical and thermodynamical processes on the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets that produce a situation out of humanity’s control, such that devastating sea-level rise will inevitably occur. Climate forcing of this century under BAU would dwarf natural forcings of the past million years, indeed it would probably exceed climate forcing of the middle Pliocene, when the planet was not more than 2 to 3.8C warmer and sea level 25+/- 10 m higher (Dowsett et al. 1994Such warming would assuredly activate the albedo-flip trigger mechanism over large portions of these ice sheets. In combination with warming of the nearby ocean and atmosphere, the increased surface melt would bring into play multiple positive feedbacks leading to eventual nonlinear ice sheet disintegration, as discussed by Hansen (2005). It is difficult to predict time of collapse in such a nonlinear problem, but we find no evidence of millennial lags between forcing and ice sheet response in palaeoclimate data. An ice sheet response time of centuries seems probable, and we cannot rule out large changes on decadal time-scales once wide-scale surface melt is underway. With GHGs continuing to increase, the planetary energy imbalance provides ample energy to melt ice corresponding to several metres of sea level per century.

http://www.journals.royalsoc.ac.uk/content/l3h462k7p4068780/fulltext.pdf


The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man. George Bernard Shaw
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Posted 07/29/07 - 12:39 AM:
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#47
Perseus,

As a matter of academic and internet etiquette; quoted material should be acknowledged as such.

Aka your above unreferenced material comes from Page 1936 (PdF page 12)

At minimum, please present such material with quotation marks.

Thanks.

Gramm

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Desiderata
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Posted 07/30/07 - 05:34 PM:
Subject: Greenland not melting
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#48
In contrast to Hansen's often exaggerated computer driven climate models; real : on the ground : data Presented here in relation the Greenland, shows that scientific evidence tells quite a different story.

Global warming advocates would have you believe Greenland is melting.

But the reality is otherwise.

Greenland is for the most part getting colder, with a subsequent increase in Ice/snow levels.

This puts the whole catastrophism of Hansen et al into question.

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction...

Gramm

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Posted 07/30/07 - 06:09 PM:
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Here's an article about that strawman argument associated with that source: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/200...

The important thing is to look to the actual scientific source, not the selective quotations from these sources.

More on Greenland: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/200...

"Scientific truth is always paradox, if judged by everyday experience, which catches only the delusive nature of things." - KM, V, P and P

"A fishnet is made up of a lot more holes than strings, but you can't therefore argue that the net doesn't exist. Just ask the fish." - Jeffrey Kluger

"…Love of God and compassion and empathy leads you to a very glorious place, and science leads you to killing people." -Ben Stein [This is included for the irony.]
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Posted 07/30/07 - 07:41 PM:
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#50
Kwalish Kid wrote:

The important thing is to look to the actual scientific source, not the selective quotations from these sources.
Perfect description for the selective editing to be found in Realclimate.org.

In the meantime.

A stronger link between Global Warming and Hurricanes has been suggested and findings supporting the claim, have just been published in Scientific America.

Amongst other findings, the report notes.

In 2005 we had 27 major storms, the most ever measured. But six or seven of them were exclusively in the central Atlantic," notes William Gray, a meteorologist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. "The record it broke was 1933 that had 21 major storms, but there was no satellite or aircraft data then. Had they had those measurements we probably would have had a comparable number of storms that year."


But critics replied suggesting....

that although there has been an increase in the number of storms since 1995, the effects of Atlantic currents, rather than climate change, could be responsible. And improvements in detecting tropical cyclones may be more to blame for this trend than anything else.


Interestingly, Dr Gray et al went on the conclude that...

....global cooling will set in within the next decade, finally putting the climate change link on ice.


Exactly as I have been saying all along...wink

And the evidence for such a trend is getting stronger day by day....cool

Gramm

[url="http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=18652E" target=_blank]http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=18652E

Seems like the URL string it too long...

So in the interests of the thread, I have reproduced it, in its entirety.

BROWSE BY SUBJECT: SPACE AND PHYSICS
July 30, 2007
Stronger Link Found between Hurricanes and Global Warming

Using records dating back to 1855, hurricane researchers say they have uncovered an ongoing rise in the number of Atlantic hurricanes that tracks the increase in sea surface temperature related to climate change. Critics of such a link argue that this trend is merely because of better observations since the dawn of the satellite era in the 1970s. But the authors of the new study say the conclusion is hard to dodge.

"Even if we take the extreme of these error estimates, we are left with a significant trend since 1890 and a significant trend in major hurricanes starting anytime before 1920," say atmospheric scientists Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., and Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta.

Looking at data from 1855 through 2005, Webster and Holland found that the total number of tropical cyclones per year doubled in that time, from an average of six at the beginning of last century to 14 over the past decade. And the present regime has yet to stabilize: "With increasingly higher sea surface temperatures it is hard to imagine anything lower than 15 storms per year" going forward, the two conclude.

Globally, areas of warm ocean have nearly tripled in size since the beginning of the 20th century, from roughly 17 million square miles to more than 46 million square miles, Webster and Holland note. "There has been an average of one additional tropical cyclone for each 0.1-degree Celsius increase in sea surface temperature and one hurricane for each 0.2-degree Celsius rise," they write in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.

Critics note that although there has been an increase in the number of storms since 1995, the effects of Atlantic currents, rather than climate change, could be responsible. And improvements in detecting tropical cyclones may be more to blame for this trend than anything else.

"In 2005 we had 27 major storms, the most ever measured. But six or seven of them were exclusively in the central Atlantic," notes William Gray, a meteorologist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. "The record it broke was 1933 that had 21 major storms, but there was no satellite or aircraft data then. Had they had those measurements we probably would have had a comparable number of storms that year."

But Holland and Webster assumed that measurements taken before aircraft and satellites made storms easier to spot could have missed as many as five hurricanes per year. "Including these errors in our analysis changes the magnitude of the trend but leaves all the substantial conclusions unaffected," they say.

Gray's team will come out with its latest forecast for this year's hurricane season at the end of this week, having previously predicted 17 storms this season. "We will continue to predict an above average year," he says. "There's a chance we might lower the numbers slightly but if we change it, we're not going to change it by much." And Gray predicts that a global cooling will set in within the next decade, finally putting the climate change link on ice.

The experts agree that natural variability is largely to blame for the relative intensity of various hurricanes, but Holland and Webster note that the locations of such storms have changed. "As more storms form near the equator, they are experiencing much better conditions for intensification and they are experiencing these conditions for a much longer period," the pair note. And that means more numerous and stronger hurricanes in the foreseeable future, whether the forecast is from a computer model or a meteorologist's instincts.






Edited by Gramm on 07/30/07 - 11:31 PM

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